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Microsoft word - carador sep monthly final.doc

GSO Capital Partners International LLP
Carador Plc (the “Fund” or “the Company”)
September 20081
Fund Performance2:
Monthly

LTM Total
Price/Net
Dividend
Inception5
Carador Price
+0.00% 23.55% -11.89% -13.72% -10.12% +7.75% Carador NAV


General Commentary

Fund performance

NAV decreased to [64.98]c in September due to the quarterly Board review of the base IRR
used to price the underlying assets. This base IRR increased by 344 bps (USD) and 308 bps
(EUR) to 30.92%. The Fund received three distributions this month, ranging from 15.09% to
29.69% (annualized cash on cash returns based on purchase price). The Fund received cash
flows worth €502,365 in the month of which €135,815 (27.04%) were allocated to principal.
There was one loan default in September6. Carador had 0.01% exposure to this name7. NRG
Energy which is present in 10 of Carador’s portfolios was the subject of a bid by Exelon Corp
(BBB+/Baa1) on October 20th. NRG loans were quoted 86/88 vs 80/81 the previous Friday.
On 27 October 2008, the Carador Board declared a dividend of 5.5 cents per ordinary share in
respect of the 6 month interim period ending 30 September 2008. This compares with a
dividend of 5.2c paid for the semi-annual period ending 30 March 2008. Interest payments in
the underlying investments are dependent on defaults rather than mark to market values and
as such have benefited from Carador’s low cumulative default rate vs the overall market.
Market performance

Leveraged Loans
Technical factors driven by the broader financial crisis had a significant impact on the
leveraged loan market in September. The collapse of Lehman Brothers and the potential
contagion to other financial institutions affected the market directly after Lehman attempted to
liquidate its portfolio of leveraged loans. Technical pressure was further exacerbated as a result
of total rate of return swaps being subject to margin calls and hedge funds liquidating in
anticipation of month or quarter end redemptions. This selling pressure met with little or no
buying interest and credit-specific news and fundamentals had little impact. As a consequence,
the annual default rate implied in current average loan prices was 17% on 30 September.
1 Please see important disclaimer at the end of this document 2 Bloomberg analytics unless otherwise stated. Dividends reinvested at Libor 3 Bloomberg 12mYld field (BQ screen) as of 4 August 2008 (latest available data) 4 2 January 2008 to date, non annualised 6 Source: JP Morgan, “Default Monitor”, 7 Exposure calculated as percentage of consolidated underlying CLO portfolios. The loan was present in two portfolios Spreads and prices in loans are now at values beyond those seen at the trough of the last downturn in October 2002. Loan discount margins currently average Libor+936bps assuming a three year average life. The following table summarizes returns for leveraged loans and the major asset classes for September, Q3 2008 and YTD 2008: Month of September
The Merrill Lynch European High Yield Index underperformed the US HY Index, (-10% in September and -14.9% YTD). As is usually the case in down drafts, the market continued to see a flight to quality. BB loans outperformed B loans by 206 bps in September and loans with maintenance tests out performed cov-lite loans by 117 bps in September. However first-lien loans underperformed second-lien loans in September due to their higher coupon despite outperforming second-liens by 500bps year to date. No industry sector was safe during the month but metals/mining, manufacturing and energy fared slightly better while transportation, consumer durables and housing were predictably the worst hit by downward price movements (transportation was down 18.9% from August). Despite this turbulence some financings were completed in Q3 with $34bn of syndications closed, albeit 59% down on the prior year. Half of this volume was institutional. One silver lining to the credit cloud, as mentioned in last month’s letter, is the increase in fees and margin boosts as a result of covenant waivers and amendments. With over 80% of the loan market subject to maintenance tests and the economy weakening, amendments have picked up. In 2002 17% of the market sought covenant relief. During the first three quarters of 2008, 9% of the market has sought relief (twice the level in all of 2007). The average amendment fee is now 63bps (up from 32bps in 2007), while the average spread increase is 164bps (up from 78bps in 2007). Despite the market turmoil during September there was just one loan default: Wembley’s $145
million facility. As a result, the lagging 12-month issuer-weighted default rate crept up to 3.32%
during the month - up from 3.27% in August and 0.26% at the end of 2007. This represents its
highest level since May 2003.
Wembley was too small to move the default rate by principal amount, which eased to 1.91%
from a two-year high of 2.03% in August and 0.24% at the end of 2007. The wide gap between
today’s rate by number versus amount shows that defaults continue to be concentrated among
smaller issuers. Indeed, the average size among the 28 loan defaults in 2008 is $352 million
versus a market-wide facility average of $712 million.

CLOs
It is difficult to talk of secondary levels with barely any secondary trading taking place but we
estimate that CLO debt spreads widened in tandem with other assets: AAA paper moved out to
400-500bps, As to 900-1000 and BBs to 1875-2250. As with the loan market this has been
driven by a plethora of sellers and very few buyers with many, particularly in AAA space,
concerned about future forced supply. The traditional buyers of AAA were mismatched
investors, funding them with short term debt which is no longer available and have been forced
to liquidate into a non-existent bid. Despite their fundamental strengths, total return for AAA
CLO debt is still low unless the buyer is able to obtain leverage, something only banks can
effectively access if they are able to discount these assets in their respective central banks.
In addition to in-depth analysis of the underlying portfolios it has became even more important
to understand the manager’s trading style. Current loan prices offer opportunities to build par
cushion for OC tests but also create constraints based on the change of treatment at certain
price levels. The presence of other CLO debt within the portfolio requires an additional overlap
analysis to avoid correlation traps.
New issuance activity was muted at an estimated $878 million through two transactions.
The Lehman bankruptcy had a marginal effect in the CLO market. A few transactions had a
guarantee from Lehman for payments to investment grade mezzanine tranches. These
transactions will now depend exclusively on the loan collateral. The guarantee aimed at
increasing the leverage in the transaction and its potential loss may affect the rating. In
addition, Lehman was the counterparty for interest rate and currency swaps in specific CLOs
and managers may have had unsettled trades with Lehman. In the case of Carador, we have
reviewed our exposure to a range of financial companies (Lehman, Washington Mutual, AIG,
Wachovia, Dexia, Fortis and Commerzbank) and are pleased to report no direct exposure to
any of these names. Indirect exposure is limited to a very small number of unsettled trades, two
swaps in two investments within a portfolio (1.7% of a portfolio which itself represents 4% of
Carador’s NAV) and loans where some of the banks act as agents.
Outlook

Selling pressure in all asset classes is continuing as we enter Q4 2008. Although Carador has
a cash balance, and several potential investments have been reviewed, we continue to adopt a
cautious approach to investment and as a consequence remain very selective about price and
quality. This resulted in the decision not to acquire any new assets during Q3 and we anticipate
that this is likely to be the ongoing trend in Q4.
Fund Performance:

Daily Closing Price/NAV
For the Price + Dividend and NAV + Dividend calculations, the dividend has been linearly distributed over the relevant period. This adjustment is only applied to previous periods, ie, no future dividend is estimated to adjust the chart.
Portfolio Description:

As of 30 September 2008
By Asset Class(1):
Broadly Syndicated Sub-Investment Grade Secured Loans-Europe Broadly Syndicated Sub-Investment Grade Secured Loans-US By Currency:
Investment/Manager:
Investment/Manager:
17 Harvest IV Euro CLO (Mizuho Leveraged Finance) 2 Alpstar I Euro CLO (Alpstar Management) 20 Leveraged Finance Europe Capital IV (BNP) 5 Denali Capital CLO VI (DC Funding Partners LLC) 21 MM Community Funding III (Sandler O'Neill) 23 Navigator CDO 2004 (GE Asset Management) 24 NYLIM Flatiron CLO 2006-1X (New York Life) 27 Prospect Park CLO (Blackstone Debt Advisors LP) 12 Gale Force II CLO (GSO Capital Partners LP) 28 RMF Euro CLO III (RMF Investment Management) 13 GLC CLO I (Global Leveraged Capital, LLC) 29 RMF Euro CLO IV (RMF Investment Management) 16 Harvest III Euro CLO (Mizuho Leveraged Finance) DISCLAIMER
This documents is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for, securities of Carador PLC in the United States or to any person in any other jurisdiction to whom or in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful and, in particular, is not for release, publication, or distribution in or into the United States. Further, it does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any investment in, or to participate in any trading strategy with GSO Capital Partners International LLP (the “Manager”) or its affiliates, including without limitation, The Blackstone Group L.P., GSO Capital Partners LP and GSO Debt Funds Management LLC (collectively, the “Manager’s Affiliates”) or any investment fund managed or sponsored by the Manager or the Manager’s Affiliates (a “Blackstone Fund”). Such an offer only will be made by means of the Private Placement Memorandum (or other offering document) for the Blackstone Fund as it may be amended or supplemented from time to time (the "PPM”). Each PPM contains material information (including a discussion of risk factors and potential conflicts of interest) not contained in this document, and supersedes and qualifies in its entirety the information set forth herein. Any decision to invest in, or withdraw from, a Blackstone Fund should be made after reviewing the appropriate PPM, conducting such investigations as the investor deems necessary and consulting the investor's own legal, accounting and tax advisors in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of the investment. A copy of the PPM for each Blackstone Fund is available upon request. Risks associated with investment in a Blackstone Fund include, without limitation, illiquidity of an investment, risk of default of the underlying debt instrument and risk of loss of principal. Carador PLC has not, and will not be, registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the "Investment Company Act"). In addition, no offer, issue or sale of securities of Carador PLC has been, or will, registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or with any securities regulatory authority of any State or other jurisdiction of the United States. Accordingly, securities of Carador PLC may not be offered, sold, pledged or otherwise transferred or delivered, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States, or to or for the account or benefit of any US person (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act), except in transactions that are exempt from registration under the Securities Act and under circumstances which will not require Carador PLC to register under the Investment Company Act. This document is issued and has been approved for the purposes of Section 21 Financial Services and Market Act 2000 ("FSMA") by the Manager, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom. It does not constitute an invitation and should not be taken as an inducement to engage in any investment activity and is for the purpose of providing information about Carador PLC (“Carador") only. It may not be relied upon and should not be used for the purpose of making any investment decision. This document is based on information which is otherwise publicly available and, whilst the Manager uses all reasonable efforts to ensure the information is accurate and up to date, no representations or warranties are given as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information. Neither the Manager nor the Manager’s Affiliates accepts any liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of or reliance on such information. In particular, you should note that, since many or all of the Manager investments are unquoted, net asset value figures in relation to Carador are based wholly or partly on estimates of the values of Carador's investments provided by the originating banks of those underlying investments or other market counterparties, which estimates may themselves have been subject to no verification or auditing process or may relate to a valuation at a date before the relevant net asset valuation for Carador, or which have otherwise been estimated by Carador's Investment Advisor. Information contained herein which relates to the net asset value performance of Carador may not be indicative of how Carador's investments may perform in the future. Moreover the values of such investments may fluctuate considerably and the historic net asset values shown for Carador take no account of the costs or practical difficulties of realising some or all of such investments. The value of investments offered through or mentioned in the site may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. No assurance can be given that the investment objective will be achieved. Information on past performance, where given, is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Changes in rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to decrease or increase. The information on the site is provided solely for information and does not constitute investment advice or personal investment recommendations. Investments offered through or mentioned in the site may not be suitable for all recipients and in each case potential investors are advised not to take any investment decision unless they have taken independent advice from an advisor authorised under FSMA. For other risk factors which may be applicable to Carador and certain of the information contained herein, you are referred to the Company's listing particulars dated 12 April 2006. Any comparisons herein of Carador performance to a benchmark or an index are qualified as follows: (i) the volatility of such benchmark or index may be materially different from that of the performance of Carador; (ii) such benchmark or index will employ different investment guidelines and criteria than Carador and, therefore, the holdings in Carador may differ significantly from the securities that comprise the index; and (iii) the performance of such benchmark or index has not necessarily been selected to represent an appropriate benchmark to compare to the performance of Carador, but rather is disclosed to allow for comparison of Carador’s performance to that of a well-known benchmark or index. A summary of the investment guidelines for any such benchmark or index is available upon request.

Source: http://www.carador.co.uk/pdf/Carador_September_2008.pdf

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